Today did not produce a qualifying new African transaction, and the wider deal board was unusually quiet. The more important capital signal came from UN Trade and Development: investment values are rising because of fewer, larger transactions while new projects continue to thin out.
Investment values rise while new projects and deal counts fall
UN Trade and Development reported that cross-border M&A value rose 57% to US$494 billion in the first nine months of 2026, while the number of deals fell 23%. Greenfield project announcements declined 15% and international project-finance deals fell 11%; in developing economies, greenfield announcements fell by more than one fifth and sustainable-development project announcements by more than 25%.
What the structure tells us
Africa’s quiet close sits inside a wider concentration problem. More money is moving, but it is clustering in larger transactions and higher-income markets. For African companies and projects, the challenge is not only to find capital; it is to reach the scale, preparation and risk allocation that increasingly narrow investment committees will accept.
Headline value can therefore rise while the investable pipeline weakens. Cross-border M&A, greenfield investment and project finance are different routes, but each now rewards transactions that are clear on ownership, cash flow, execution responsibility and the next decision capital must fund.
transactions · foreign direct investment · M&A · greenfield investment · project finance · developing economies